Sunday, August 8, 2010

PREVIEW-Canada seen adding 20K jobs in Feb

Fri Mar 12, 2010 6:30am EST

(Repeats story first run March 5 without changes)

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WHAT: Canadian February employment report

WHEN: Friday, March 12 at 7 a.m. (1200 GMT)

REUTERS FORECAST: The median forecast of 21 analysts is fora net gain of 20,000 jobs in February, considerably less thanthe 43,000 job gains in January. Forecasts vary from a loss of10,000 jobs to a gain of 45,000.

The median forecast for the unemployment rate is 8.3percent, unchanged from January. Forecasts range from 8.2percent to 8.4 percent. ECONCA

FACTORS TO WATCH:

OLYMPICS: The Winter Games in Vancouver will likely give atemporary bump to February job numbers due to regional hiringin retail, tourism, security and other services.

RECOVERY: Canada"s economy seems to be recovering fasterthan predicted after annualized fourth-quarter growth of 5percent. In February, manufacturers and exporters may have beenhurt by snowstorms in the United States that slowed trade.

The three-month trend has been jobs growth of about 30,000and analysts expect that to continue as the labor marketgradually improves after bottoming out in mid-2009.

STIMULUS: The government confirmed in its budget onThursday that it would carry through with the second phase ofits two-year C$47.2 billion stimulus plan.

Department of Finance models suggest the stimulus plan hadcreated or maintained 130,000 jobs as of January, and it seesthat number reaching 220,000 by March 2011. Nearly 60 percentof the total jobs will be in services, followed by constructionand manufacturing, it said.

Ottawa lowered its estimate of 2010 unemployment to 8.5percent from 9 percent in the budget.

MARKET IMPACT: Another month of big job gains, followingthe blockbuster fourth-quarter growth, could increase marketexpectations of an earlier than expected rate hike by the Bankof Canada. As a result, the Canadian dollar could strengthenagainst the U.S. currency and bond prices could fall. Anet job gain that is lower than estimates or job losses couldburst the market optimism about the recovery, triggering adecline in the Canadian dollar. (Reporting by Louise Egan; editing by Janet Guttsman)

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